In brief: RISE WP7 addresses the testing, model evaluation, model validation and ensemble modelling by adopting and transforming the CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictibility). CSEP is a global platform for independent, reproducible and transparent testing of earthquake prediction algorithms and forecast models. Learning from best practices in other science disciplines, and coordinating with the global CSEP community, we will transform and expand the CSEP platform to suit the testing needs of Operational Earthquake Forecasting OEF. We will design a more flexible and sustainable framework (nicknamed here CSEP2.0) with significantly improved testing capabilities to enable the transfer of scientific knowledge and models to trusted operational tools for loss reduction. Specific targets are:
- Design and implement a CSEP 2.0 platform for Europe with transformed capacity to test OEF hypotheses, models and procedures, establishing Europe as a major contributor to the global CSEP Collaboratory.
- Conduct formal and independent evaluations, both pseudo-prospective and fully prospective, of RISE OEF candidate models (or model components) in several well-defined European testing regions.
- Develop rigorous testing approaches of other dynamic risk model components, including ground-motion forecasts, micro-zonation, exposure and loss models.
- Expand the suite of tests to support new OEF-specific experiments, learning also from best practises in weather forecasting and other disciplines.
- Leverage the global CSEP collaboration through open-source, co-designed and shared software that enables userfriendly testing of models across tectonic settings.
- Develop a roadmap to enable CSEP style testing as a sustainable EPOS service that will advance research on earthquake predictability.
Lead: GFZ
Participants: ETH Zürich, INGV, UNIVBRIS, UEDIN, UNINA, BIU, UKRI, QUAKE
Contact: Dr. Danijel Schorlemmer