In brief: This WP addresses risk and resilience analysis for EEW, as well as for short- and long-term risk management during and after seismic sequences. In particular, this WP will combine, in a rigorous probabilistic framework, the models developed in its tasks and/or in other WPs, for seismic risk and resilience management, considering a multi-hazard context. The key objectives of this WP are:

• develop a 2nd generation real-time seismic structural assessment and RLA tools for Europe;
• improve and operationalize earthquake loss forecasting for Europe (e.g. Italy, Turkey and Switzerland) and structure-specific early warning, eventually including time-variant hazard and fragility, accounting for accumulating damage; develop time-varying vulnerability methods applied to buildings during long-term and short-term sequence of earthquakes;
• develop near real-time recovery forecasting, rebuilding management and resilience assessment for infrastructures. Machine learning will be used to construct robust diagnostics able to trigger alarms and remedial actions;
• advance technologies for data-driven SHM and damage detection in structural systems in the context of EEW and OELF during seismic sequences;
• develop a user-ready risk-cost-benefit analysis framework for quantifying socio-economic costs, implementation of which will allow for rational decision making at local, regional and national level.

Lead: UNINA

Participants: ETH Zürich, GFZ, INGV, BIU, EUCENTRE, EMSC, UGA, BOUN, KNMI

Contact: Prof. Iunio Iervolino

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