In brief: RISE WP7 addresses the
testing, model evaluation, model validation and ensemble
modelling by adopting and transforming the CSEP
(Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake
Predictibility). CSEP is a global platform for
independent, reproducible and transparent testing of
earthquake prediction algorithms and forecast models.
Learning from best practices in other science
disciplines, and coordinating with the global CSEP
community, we will transform and expand the CSEP
platform to suit the testing needs of Operational
Earthquake Forecasting OEF. We will design a more
flexible and sustainable framework (nicknamed here
CSEP2.0) with significantly improved testing
capabilities to enable the transfer of scientific
knowledge and models to trusted operational tools for
loss reduction. Specific targets are:
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Design and implement a CSEP 2.0 platform for Europe
with transformed capacity to test OEF hypotheses,
models and procedures, establishing Europe as a major
contributor to the global CSEP Collaboratory.
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Conduct formal and independent evaluations, both
pseudo-prospective and fully prospective, of RISE OEF
candidate models (or model components) in several
well-defined European testing regions.
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Develop rigorous testing approaches of other dynamic
risk model components, including ground-motion
forecasts, micro-zonation, exposure and loss models.
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Expand the suite of tests to support new OEF-specific
experiments, learning also from best practises in
weather forecasting and other disciplines.
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Leverage the global CSEP collaboration through
open-source, co-designed and shared software that
enables userfriendly testing of models across tectonic
settings.
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Develop a roadmap to enable CSEP style testing as a
sustainable EPOS service that will advance research on
earthquake predictability.
Lead: GFZ
Participants: ETH Zürich, INGV,
UNIVBRIS, UEDIN, UNINA, BIU, UKRI, QUAKE
Contact:
Dr. Danijel Schorlemmer