Currently, it is not possible to predict earthquakes. However, by studying the patterns of earthquake or aftershock sequences, we can learn a lot about their typical behaviours. For example, from analysing numerous data sets we know that damaging earthquakes trigger thousands of aftershocks, which usually decay in strength and frequency over time. First-generation Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) tools are already capable of highlighting periods and regions of increased seismic risk in the short-term. New sensors, models, and computational techniques will allow to further improve OEF. In addition, RISE will conduct a multi-parameter search to find and scrutinize potential precursors.

Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) aims to provide a warning that the shaking of an earthquake is expected before it actually arrives. The warning is issued immediately after the earthquake has occurred or while it is still ongoing. Therefore, EEW does not predict an earthquake.

EEW is possible because electromagnetic waves travel much faster than seismic waves. Therefore, alerts based on the signals captured by seismic sensors close to the epicentre arrive at distant sites before the damaging seismic waves.

EEW can save lives if the public reacts appropriately to the warning and it can protect infrastructure by triggering automated shutdown procedures. However, EEW usually can only provide some seconds warning time before the earthquake strikes. It is possible to rapidly forecast the time of arrival of seismic waves at a remote site, but the assessment of the magnitude and the strength of the earthquake is less certain. This results in the possibility that EEW issues false alerts and that it over- or underestimates the actual earthquake.

Given the limitations of EEW – short warning times and uncertain alert levels – RISE advocates that EEW should generally not operate as a stand-alone application. Instead, RISE proposes a more holistic concept of dynamic risk assessment, which seamlessly embeds EEW into existing networks. RISE aims at fully unlocking and demonstrating the potential of EEW at a national scale as an essential element of a dynamic risk assessment.

Additionally, RISE evaluates the potential of crowdsourced EEW by using smartphone apps and low-cost sensors (including the “internet of things”), as well as improving EEW-related communication and alert messages.

Immediately after the strong shaking has stopped, emergency organizations have to decide where to best deploy their resources. A Rapid Loss Assessment (RLA) discloses the areas affected, the extent of damage, and the assumed number of injured. Smart buildings, improved data processing, enhanced knowledge of building vulnerability or soil conditions allow for an improved RLA.

To inform rapid loss assessments as well as recovery and rebuilding efforts, Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) is applied. For this purpose, buildings or infrastructures are densely wired and interconnected allowing to measure strain and acceleration displacement in consequence of an earthquake. The data allows assessing the structural condition and thereby informs rapid loss assessment as well as recovery and rebuilding efforts. As a result, buildings or infrastructures could be “tagged” based on their condition.

RISE will unlock the potential of automated SHM as a real-time contribution to rapid loss assessment as well as recovery and rebuilding efforts. It will also feedback to operational earthquake forecasting. RISE will utilize a wavelet-based damage-sensitive feature and basic building geometric information to infer the building damage at a given seismic intensity.

The total losses of an earthquake and its aftershocks not only include direct losses to the built environment, but also indirect losses for example due to the interruptions of services. RISE will validate models to compute the estimated costs for Recovery and Rebuilding Efforts (RRE) in near real time enabling RRE forecasting.

Seismic hazard assessments describe how often and how strong the Earth shakes on average at a specific location within a certain period. It thus provides a time-independent and long term view on earthquakes, which is regularly updated, acknowledging the current state of the art in seismic hazard assessment and the most recent data. Seismic hazard considers the history of earthquakes, damage reports, wave propagation models, and present geological and tectonic conditions.

Seismic hazard assessments are needed to develop design codes and strengthen other means of disaster preparedness. Furthermore, earthquake hazard information is one of the prerequisites to defining earthquake risk, which representsthe potential effects of ground motions on the built environment and consequential effects such as fatalities.