Earthquakes cannot be prevented nor precisely predicted, but efficient mitigation measures informed by earthquake hazard and risk models can significantly reduce their impacts. The 2020 European Seismic Hazard and Risk Models offer comparable information on the spatial distribution of expected levels of ground shaking due to earthquakes, their frequency as well as their potential impact on the built environment and on people’s wellbeing. To this aim, all underlying datasets have been updated and harmonised – a complex undertaking given the vast amount of data and highly diverse tectonic settings in Europe. Such an approach is crucial to establish effective transnational disaster mitigation strategies that support the definition of insurance policies or up-to-date building codes at a European level (e.g. Eurocode 8 ) and at national levels. In Europe, Eurocode 8 defines the standards recommended for earthquake-resistant construction and retrofitting buildings and structures to limit the impact due to earthquakes. Open access is provided to both, the European Seismic Hazard and Risk Models, including various initial components such as input datasets.
The updated earthquake hazard model benefits from advanced datasets
Earthquake hazard describes potential ground shaking due to future earthquakes and is based on knowledge about past earthquakes, geology, tectonics, and local site conditions at any given location across Europe. The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) replaces the previous model of 2013.
The advanced datasets incorporated into the new version of the model have led to a more com-prehensive assessment. In consequence, ground shaking estimates have been adjusted, resulting in lower estimates in most parts of Europe. With the exception of some regions in western Turkey, Greece, Albania, Romania, southern Spain, and southern Portugal where higher ground shaking estimates are observed. The updated model also confirms that Turkey, Greece, Albania, Italy, and Romania are the countries with the highest earthquake hazard in Europe, followed by the other Balkan countries. But even in regions with low or moderate ground shaking estimates, damaging earthquakes can occur at any time.
Furthermore, specific hazard maps from Europe’s updated earthquake hazard model will serve for the first time as an informative annex for the second generation of the Eurocode 8. Eurocode 8 standards are an important reference to which national models may refer. Such models, when available, provide authoritative information to inform national, regional, and local decisions related to developing seismic design codes and risk mitigation strategies. Integrating earthquake hazard models in specific seismic design codes helps ensure that buildings respond appropriately to earthquakes. These efforts thus contribute to better protect European citizens from earthquakes.
Main drivers of the earthquake risk are older buildings, high earthquake hazard, and urban areas
Earthquake risk describes the estimated economic and humanitarian consequences of potential earthquakes. In order to determine the earthquake risk, information on local soil conditions, the density of buildings and people (exposure), the vulnerability of the built environment, and robust earthquake hazard assessments are needed. According to the 2020 European Seismic Risk Model (ESRM20), buildings constructed before the 1980s, urban areas, and high earthquake hazard estimates mainly drive the earthquake risk.
Although most European countries have recent design codes and standards that ensure adequate protection from earthquakes, many older unreinforced or insufficiently reinforced buildings still exist, posing a high risk for their inhabitants. The highest earthquake risk accumulates in urban areas, such as the cities of Istanbul and Izmir in Turkey, Catania and Naples in Italy, Bucharest in Romania, and Athens in Greece, many of which have a history of damaging earthquakes. In fact, these four countries alone experience almost 80% of the modelled average annual economic loss of 7 billion Euros due to earthquakes in Europe. However, also cities like Zagreb (Croatia), Tirana (Albania), Sofia (Bulgaria), Lisbon (Portugal), Brussels (Belgium), and Basel (Switzerland) have an above-average level of earthquake risk compared to less exposed cities, such as Berlin (Germany), London (UK), or Paris (France).
The hazard.EFEHR and risk.EFEHR web platforms provide access to interactive tools such as seismic hazard and risk models, products and information. Distributed data, models, products and information are based on research projects carried out by academic and public organisations.
The scientific data is accessible on the publicly available EFEHR GitLab repository for free download.
Except where otherwise noted, all ESHM20 and ESRM20 data and scientific products are released under the Creative Commons BY 4.0 license. These products can therefore be used or private, scientific, commercial and non-commercial purposes, provided adequate citation is added.
Discover more at www.efehr.org.
Danciu L., Nandan S., Reyes C., Basili R., Weatherill G., Beauval C., Rovida A., Vilanova S., Sesetyan K., Bard P-Y., Cotton F., Wiemer S., Giardini D. (2021) The 2020 update of the European Seismic Hazard Model: Model Overview. EFEHR Technical Report 001, v1.0.0, https://doi.org/10.12686/a15
Crowley H., Dabbeek J., Despotaki V., Rodrigues D., Martins L., Silva V., Romão, X., Pereira N., Weatherill G. and Danciu L. (2021) European Seismic Risk Model (ESRM20), EFEHR Technical Report 002, V1.0.0, 84 pp, https://doi.org/10.7414/EUC-EFEHR-TR002-ESRM20