Good Practice



RISE in brief

Earthquakes are the deadliest natural hazard. Developing tools and measures to reduce future human and economic losses is the aim of RISE. RISE stands for Real-time earthquake rIsk reduction for a reSilient Europe and is a three-year project financed by the Horizon 2020 programme of the European Commission. It started in September 2019 and will end in August 2022. RISE is coordinated by ETH Zurich, it brings together 19 organisations from across Europe and five international partners.



What is the Foreshock Traffic Light System?

Recently, Laura Gulia investigated the spatio-temporal evolution of the earthquake size distribution throughout a seismic sequence focusing on the b-value. This is a parameter characterizing the relationship between the earthquake magnitude and the number of earthquakes. She and her colleagues found out that, immediately after a mainshock, the b-value increases by 20%-30% and remains high for at least the following 5 years, reducing the chance of occurrence of a larger earthquake near the fault that originated the mainshock.

Based on their research, Laura Gulia and Stefan Wiemer developed the Foreshock Traffic Light System (FTLS), a promising tool for the mainshock and aftershock hazard assessment. In the interview with Gabriele Amato from the NH blog, Laura Gulia explains more about the thoughts behind it and future research plans. Read the full interview here.

Gulia, L., and S. Wiemer (2019). Real-time discrimination of earthquake foreshocks and aftershocks, Nature 574, 193–199.

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Upcoming events

vEGU21: Gather Online (#vEGU21)
19-30 April 2021

Related RISE sessions:

"Advances in Earthquake Forecasting and Model Testing"
"Fighting misinformation about hazard and risk"

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Annual Meeting 2021 of the Seismological Society of America (SSA)
19-23 April 2021

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RISE Mid-Term Conference
26-28 May 2021 (Florence, Italy)

ESC2021: 37th General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission
19-24 September 2021 (Virtual Event)

Related RISE session:

"Towards operational forecasting of earthquakes and early warningcapacity for more resilient societies"

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